原文信息： - 标题：Owner Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow - 作者：Joe Ponzio - 发表时间：2008-12-31 - 链接： - 中文翻译：DeepL、[风远](https://xueqiu.com/2647565570/78991831) - 整理：Ponge - 校译： --- Managers thinking about accounting issues should never forget one of Abraham Lincoln’s favorite riddles: “How many legs does a dog have if you call his tail a leg?” The answer: “Four, because calling a tail a leg does not make it a leg.” – Warren Buffett 管理者在考虑会计问题时，千万不要忘记亚伯拉罕·林肯最喜欢的一个谜语：「如果你将狗的尾巴称为一条腿，一条狗有几条腿？」答案是「四条，因为就算你将尾巴称为一条腿，它不会因此就变成一条腿」。——沃伦·巴菲特 Though many people consider free cash flow and owner earnings to be one in the same, this is not always the case. 尽管很多人认为自由现金流和股东盈余是同一概念，但事实并非总是如此。 This report discusses the differences between Free Cash Flow and Owner Earnings. 本报告将讨论自由现金流和股东盈余之间的区别。 For additional help or information, please feel free to visit [www.FWallStreet.com](www.FWallStreet.com). 如需更多帮助或信息，请随时访问 [www.FWallStreet.com](www.FWallStreet.com)。 --- In his 1986 Letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett laid out a definition and equation for “owner earnings” - a number that he said is “the relevant item for valuation purposes- both for investors in buying stocks and for managers in buying entire businesses." 在1986年的信中，巴菲特提到了「股东盈余（Owner Earnings）」的概念，并对其进行了定义。巴菲特认为该数字对于股票投资者和企业整体并购者而言，都是对标的进行估值的一个重要依据。 What is owner earnings? Before we get into a full explanation, let's lay forth Buffett's formula, as written in the aforementioned letter: 什么是股东盈余？在全面解释之前，我们先来介绍一下巴菲特在上述信中所写的公式： "\[Owner earnings\] represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges...less (c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume." 「\[股东盈余\]是指（a）报告利润加上（b）折旧、损耗、摊销和某些其他非现金费用......减去（c）企业为完全保持其长期竞争地位和单位产量所需的厂房和设备等资本化支出的年均金额。」 It's a mouthful; hence, the need for the discussion contained herein. 这段话拗口，因此需要在此进行讨论。 Of course, investors as a group tend to have a need for immediate gratification and tend to seek out a single, simple, quick formula for investing. Because of those needs, free cash flow was born as the “armchair investor's” owner earnings. 大多的投资者都有着成为“翘脚老板”的梦想（原文是“armchair investor”，意思是指坐在扶手椅上悠闲投资的方式），所以，都希望能有一个快速、简单的公式来指导投资。自由现金流（Free Cash Flow）就是为了满足这一需求而诞生的，用于描述股东利润的一种快捷方式。 Though at times free cash flow and owner earnings are substantially the same, there are times that they differ greatly which can have a very significant impact on an investor's estimation of intrinsic value. This report will outline the major differences between owner earnings and free cash flow. It assumes that the reader has, at the very least, a rudimentary understanding of financial terms and financial statements. 虽然，有的时候自由现金流和股东利润大体上是相同的；但在某些情况下，这两者之间有着巨大的差距，可能导致投资者对企业的内在价值评估相差万里。这篇文章将揭示这二者之间的主要差别。本报告假定读者至少对财务术语和财务报表有初步了解。 For additional information and more examples, visit Joe Ponzio's [www.FWallStreet.com](www.FWallStreet.com). 欲了解更多信息和实例，请访问乔·庞齐奥（Joe Ponzio）的 [www.FWallStreet.com](www.FWallStreet.com)。 # The Start-Up: X-Widget Incorporated 初创公司：X-Widget 股份有限公司 For this discussion of free cash flow versus owner earnings, we'll start by analyzing a fictional company: X-Widget Incorporated. In doing so, the reader should end up with a strong grasp of how the income statement, balance sheet, and statement of cash flows are tied together to give a clear picture of the financial health and performance of a business. 为了讨论自由现金流和股东利润，我们先虚构一家公司 – X-Widget股份有限公司。通过对这家公司的分析讨论后，读者应该对企业的三大报表利润表、资产负债表和现金流量表及其之间的联系有很好的认识，并且对一家企业的业绩状况和财务健康有清楚的理解。 X-Widget Inc. is a start-up company in the business of selling widgets. To start X-Widget Inc., the owner - Bob-decides to bear the costs of incorporating so that X-Widget starts with a clean slate.His attorney creates 10,000 shares of stock and gives Bob 1,000 shares, each with a par value of $1.00. Bob then invests $50,000. Thus, before any sales and before any other business is conducted, X-Widget's income statement is zero - no income or expenses - and its day 1 (in this case, January 1) balance sheet is as follows: X-Widget公司是一家初创企业，从事的是饰品生产销售的生意。Bob是这家公司的创始人和拥有者，他决定自己出资作为公司的启动资金。然后，Bob的律师登记了10,000股股份，并将其中的1,000股给了Bob。这1,000股的票面价值为每股1美元。注意，这里的另外9,000股没有票面价值，这叫作“无面额股票”，或者称为无面值股票、比例股票、分权股票或份额股票，是指股票票面上不记载金额的股票。在我国（包括世界上其它很多国家），不允许发行无面额股票。美国是允许的。然后，Bob真金白银地投入了50,000美元，存入到公司账户中。至此，在公司的业务开展之前，没有任何销售活动，公司的利润报表是空的，即没有收入也没有支出。以下是该公司成立后第一天（假设为1月1日）的资产负债表： January 1,2006
2006年 1 月 1 日|Amount ---|---: **Assets
资产**|  Current Assets:
 流动资产|   Cash & Cash Equivalents
  现金和现金等价物|$ 50,000   Accounts Receivable
  应收账款|-   Inventory
  存货|-  Total Current Assets
 流动资产合计|50,000 Total Assets
资产合计|50,000 || **Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity
负债及股东权益**|  Current Liabilities:
 流动负债|   Accounts Payable
  应付账款|-   Accrued Expenses
  应付费用|-  Total Current Liabilities
 流动负债合计|- ||  Stockholders' Equity:
 股东权益|   Common Stock, 10,000 shares authorized, 1,000 issued and outstanding
  普通股，额定股份 10,000 股，已发行的流通股份为 1,000 股|1,000   Additional Paid-In Capital
  资本公积|49,000  Total Stockholders' Equity
 股东权益合计|50,000 Total Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity
负债及股东权益合计|$ 50,000 Following this balance sheet is pretty straightforward. Bob put $50,000 into his business' checking account; hence, $50,000 in Cash & Cash Equivalents. It wasn't a loan to the company; rather, Bob invested in his company. His 1,000 shares of stock have a "par value" of $1.00 per share - or, $1,000. When he invested $50,000 into his company, $1,000 of that went to cover the $1,000 par value of stock and the rest went in as "Additional Paid-In Capital" - money Bob invested above and beyond the par value of the stock. 按照这张资产负债表就很简单了。Bob在公司账户上存入了50,000美元，所以现金和现金等价物为50,000美元。他的1,000股股份具有每股1美元的票面价值，也就是1,000美元。 Bob投资了50,000美元，其中的1,000美元换成了面值1美元的1,000股股份，其余的部分记录到资本公积中 – 就是Bob的投资超过所获得的股票面值的那部分钱。 In this simple start-up example, the balance sheet tells just about the whole story to this point. In a more complex example, investors would definitely want to see a statement of cash flows. Let's look at the cash flows for this period, and then get into business: 在这个简单的初创公司例子中，资产负债表几乎说明了到目前为止的全部情况。在一个更复杂的例子中，投资者肯定希望看到现金流量表。让我们看看这一时期的现金流量，然后进入正题： For the period ended January 1, 2006
截至 2006 年 1 月 1 日|Amount ---|---: **Cash flows from operating activities:
经营活动产生的现金流量**|  Net Income
 净利润|$ -  Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
 将净利润调节为经营活动现金流量|   Depreciation and amortization
  折旧与摊销|-   Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
  经营资产及负债的变化|    Accounts receivable
   应收账款|-    Inventory
   存货|-    Accounts payable
   应付账款|-    Accrued expenses
   应付费用|- Net cash provided by operating activities
经营活动产生的现金流量净额|- || **Cash flows from investing activities:
投资活动产生的现金流量**|  Purchases of property and equipment
 购买地产和设备支付的现金|- Net cash flows from investing activities
投资活动产生的现金流量净额|- || **Cash flows from financing activities:
筹资活动产生的现金流量**|  Proceeds from issuance of treasury stock
 发行库存股所得收益|1,000  Changes in additional paid-in capital
 资本公积变化|49,000 Net cash flows from financing activities
筹资活动产生的现金流量净额|$ 50,000 || Cash & Cash equivalents, beginning
期初现金及现金等价物余额|- Cash & Cash equivalents, ending
期末现金及现金等价物余额|$ 50,000 As you can see from this statement of cash flows, nothing was generated from the income statement （the “net income”） and you saw that there were no changes in inventories， accounts payable／receivable, etc. That is, there was absolutely no cash flow from “operating activities” because the business did not start operating. No property or equipment was purchased; so, there was no cash flow from "investing activities”. The balance sheet showed $50,000 of cash - $50,000 more than it had before Bob invested. His investment is reflected in the cash flows from “financing activities”. 从现金流量表中，可以看到没有任何收入，在存货、应收/应付账款中也没有任何变化。因为公司还没有开始运作，当然没有任何现金的流动来自于经营活动。没有购买任何地产和设备，所以投资活动相关的现金流也没有。在资产负债表中显示有50,000美元的现金，这是来自于Bob的投资。投资、贷款都是属于筹资类型的活动，所以在现金流量表中反映在筹资活动产生的现金流量中。 # The First Sale (and Quarter) 第一笔买卖及第一季度 Now that X-Widget Inc. has been funded, it is ready to hit the ground running. Bob buys a widget stamp - the $20,000 machine he desperately needs to start making widgets. He spends $1,000 on business cards, brochures, and other marketing materials. In addition, his new business phone is going to cost him $50 a month. 好了，X-Widget公司已经成立，万事俱备，可以开张了。Bob已经迫不及待地想要开工了，于是他花了20,000美元买了一台用于生产饰品的机器。另外，他花了1,000美元印制了名片、公司宣传册等其它一些市场宣传资料。同时，为了对外联系公司业务，他添置了一部手机，每个月的话费为50美元。 Ready to make his first millions, Bob hires a commission-only sales rep to pound the streets and drum up business. Bob estimates that the cost of manufacturing a widget is $5,000. If he sells them for $10,000 and gives the sales rep a 25% commission ($2,500), Bob will turn an operating profit of 25%, or $2,500 for each widget sold ($10,000 minus $2,500 in commissions minus $5,000 cost to produce = $2,500). 为了向往的第一个壹百万，Bob雇佣了一个销售人员进行扫街宣传销售活动。该销售人员没有固定工资，其收入纯粹是提成。Bob估算生产一个饰品的制造成本为5,000美元。如果他能够以10,000美元的价格进行销售，除去销售的25%提成（2,500美元），那么每销售一个饰品的营业利润就是2,500美元（或者叫25%的营业利润率）。（10,000美元营业收入 – 2,500美元销售费用 – 5,000美元生产成本 = 2,500美元） By the way: To keep things simple, Bob will be operating out of his garage and won't be paying any rent or taking any home write-offs. 为了让这个例子看起来简单一些，假设Bob就在他的车库中进行生产，所以他不用支付任何的房屋租金，同时也不因为使用自己家中的场地去要求抵扣税项。（在美国，个体经营者如果在自己家中开展商业活动，可以从他们的收入税中抵扣一部分费用。） On February 15, 2006, the sales rep brings in an order for five widgets - a total order of $50,000.Bob records the sale in his accounting software and gets to making the product. It takes six weeks to make the widgets, including delivery, and the customer has thirty days to pay upon acceptance. Assuming the customer holds payment until the last possible moment, Bob should collect a check for $50,000 around the end of April. 2006年2月15日那一天，销售带来了好消息 — 5个饰品的订单，总计50,000美元。Bob在自己的财务软件中记下了这笔销售，并且开始动手生产这批订单。从生产到交付给客户，一共需要6周的时间。客户在接受货物之后，有30天的时间来付款。假设，客户会在最后付款日的那天才付款，那么Bob实际收到这笔货款的时间大约会在4月底。 The first quarter comes to a close on March 31,2006, and Bob prepares his financial statements: 时间来到了3月31日，第一个季度结束了，Bob准备好了他的财报： January 1, 2006 to March 31, 2006
2006 年 1 月 1 日至 2006 年 3 月 31 日|Amount ---|---: **Income Statement
利润表**| Gross Revenues
营业总收入|$ 50,000  Cost of goods sold
 销售商品的成本|(25,000) Gross Operating Profit
销售毛利润|25,000 || Expenses
费用|  Marketing
 市场费用|(1,000)  Telephone
 电话费|(150)  Commissions
 销售提成|(12,500)  Depreciation
 折旧|(500) Total Expenses
费用合计|(14,150) || Earnings, before taxes
税前利润|10,850  Provision for taxes
 预提税|(1,628) Net Income
净利润|$ 9,222 || Net Income per Share
每股净利润|$ 9.22 Not many businesses turn a profit their very first quarter. By traditional measures (particularly those on Wall Street), Bob's business is doing extremely well. We now turn to check out his balance sheet: 一般来说，在公司成立的第一个季度，很少有实现盈利的情况。从传统的眼光（尤其是华尔街）来看，Bob公司的业绩那是相当的好。让我们来看看他的资产负债表： March 31, 2006
2006 年 3 月 31 日|Amount ---|---: **Assets
资产**|  Current Assets:
 流动资产|   Cash & Cash Equivalents
  现金和现金等价物|$ 272   Accounts Receivable
  应收账款|50,000   Inventory
  存货|-  Total Current Assets
 流动资产合计|50,272  Plant, Property, & Equipment, net Total Assets
 厂房、地产以及设备|19,500 Total Assets
资产合计|69,772 || **Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity
负债及股东权益**|  Current Liabilities:
 流动负债|   Accounts Payable
  应付账款|50   Accrued Expenses
  应付费用|10,500  Total Current Liabilities
 流动负债合计|10,550 ||  Stockholders' Equity:
 股东权益|   Common Stock, 10,000 shares authorized, 1,000 issued and outstanding
  普通股，额定股份 10,000 股，已发行的流通股份为 1,000 股|1,000   Additional Paid-In Capital
  资本公积|49,000   Retained Earnings
  留存收益|9,222  Total Stockholders' Equity
 股东权益合计|59,222 Total Liabilities & Stockholders' Equity
负债及股东权益合计|$ 69,772 Things seem to be in order. Shareholder equity is up $9,222 - or 18% - from when X-Widget started just three months earlier. We see the $50,000 order under Accounts Receivable. That is the sale that is outstanding with the customer.X-Widget just made delivery of the product yesterday and the customer has thirty days to pay the $50,000. 看起来似乎一切尽在掌握之中。仅仅在第一个季度中，股东权益就从50,000美元上涨了9,222美元（上涨了18%）。我们看到有50,000美元的应收账款，这是还未从客户处收回的货款。昨天，货物刚刚被送到客户手中，而客户有30天的账期来支付这50,000美元的货款。 We see cash of just $272. We'll get to that in the statement of cash flows. 从上表中，我们还可以看到公司的现金只剩下272美元了。从现金流量表中，我们将会看到这是如何发生的。 The company has some physical assets in the form of a $20,000 widget stamp. In this case, X-Widget Inc. is depreciating it over ten years, at the rate of $2,000 a year, or $500 a quarter. So, Plant, Property, & Equipment (PPE) shows the $20,000 widget stamp minus $500 in depreciation for the period. 公司现在拥有一台以20,000美元购入的机器。X-Widget公司认为这台机器的折旧期限为10年，也就是每年折旧2,000美元，或者说每季度500美元。那么第一季度结束后，该机器的就折旧了500美元。所以，在厂房、地产以及设备（固定资产）中显示的是19,500美元（即20,000美元减去500美元）。 Accounts Payable is $50. The phone bill is $50 a month. As of March 31, 2006, X-Widget had received three $50 phone bills for a total phone expense of $150. We saw that on the income statement. The phone bill is due on the tenth day of the month following the end of the billing cycle; so, X-Widget Inc. has received three bills, but has only paid two of them. The most recent bill (for $50) for the month of March is due on April 10th. Thus, the company has an Accounts Payable balance of $50. 有应付账款50美元。这是每个月的电话费50美元。截止3月31日，X-Widget公司总共收到了3张电话账单，每张50美元，总计150美元。这笔费用我们可以在利润表中的电话费项目中看到。电话费的支付是每个月的10号之前支付上个月的费用。于是，X-Widget公司虽然收到了3张账单，可是只支付了前两个月的话费。最近三月份的这张账单（50美元），可以在4月10日再行支付。由此，公司的应付账款上记录了这50美元。 X-Widget Inc.racked up $10,500 in Accrued Expenses. We'll get to that in the statement of cash flows. 在应付费用这个科目上记录了10,500美元，这是什么？我们将在现金流量表中解释。 Finally, the company had $9,222 of net income, which translates into $9,222 of Retained Earnings under Shareholder Equity. 综上所述，公司第一季度录得了9,222美元的净利润，这就是股东权益中留存收益的由来。 If, at this point, you are thinking about the $10,500 of Accrued Expenses or the anemic $272 of cash in the bank, you are starting to see the absurdity of looking solely at the income statement. Let’s move on to the company’s statement of cash flows: 如果，你的目光落在那笔10,500美元的应付费用以及可怜的272美元现金上，你就会发现仅仅着眼于利润表是多么的荒谬。让我们来看看现金流量表： January 1, 2006 to March 31, 2006
2006 年 1 月 1 日至 2006 年 3 月 31 日|Amount ---|---: **Cash flows from operating activities:
经营活动产生的现金流量**|  Net Income
 净利润|$ 9,222  Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
 将净利润调节为经营活动现金流量|   Depreciation and amortization
  折旧与摊销|500   Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
  经营资产及负债的变化|    Accounts receivable
   应收账款|(50,000)    Inventory
   存货|-    Accounts payable
   应付账款|50    Accrued expenses
   应付费用|10,500 Net cash provided by operating activities
经营活动产生的现金流量净额|(29,728) || **Cash flows from investing activities:
投资活动产生的现金流量**|  Purchases of property and equipment
 购买地产和设备支付的现金|(20,000) Net cash flows from investing activities
投资活动产生的现金流量净额|(20,000) || **Cash flows from financing activities:
筹资活动产生的现金流量**|  Proceeds from issuance of treasury stock
 发行库存股所得收益|1,000  Changes in additional paid-in capital
 资本公积变化|49,000 Net cash flows from financing activities
筹资活动产生的现金流量净额|$ 50,000 || Cash & Cash equivalents, beginning
期初现金及现金等价物余额|- Cash & Cash equivalents, ending
期末现金及现金等价物余额|$ 272 For illustrative purposes, we'll begin from the bottom and work backwards. We know that the company had absolutely no cash at the beginning of the quarter (just before Bob invested his $50,000). Looking at the balance sheet, we also know that the company has just $272 in the bank. That takes care of the “beginning and ending” lines of Cash & Cash equivalents. 为了方便解释，让我们从后往前看这张表。公司在本季度开始的时候（在Bob投入50,000美元之前）是没有现金的，所以期初现金及现金等价物余额为0。从资产负债表中，我们得知银行账户中只剩下272美元了。所以，期末现金及现金等价物余额为272美元。 Moving up to “financing activities":Bob invested $50,000 into his company on January 1, 2006. We went through that before. Suffice it to say that Bob did not invest or withdraw any money during this quarter. Moving up to “investing activities”: Bob spent $20,000 on a widget stamp - the equipment he needs to make the widgets that his sales rep will sell. The widget stamp required a cash outlay of $20,000; thus, this figure is negative. X-Widget Inc. did not have any other investing activity. 往上看，到「筹资活动产生的现金流量」：Bob在2006年1月1日投入了50,000美元。在一季度中，Bob没有继续投入现金也没有撤资，所以这部分没有变化。再往上，到「投资活动产生的现金流量」：Bob花了20,000美元购买了一台机器，这台机器是必须购买的，否则无法进行生产。这是现金的流出，所以记为负数。除此之外，公司没有其它与投资活动相关的现金流动。 Finally, we move up to “operating activities": We need to reconcile the $9,222 of net income X-Widget reported on its income statement to the actual cash consumed or generated by the operations of the business. In this case, we start with the $9,222 of net income, because that was the reported amount. Now, we add and subtract operating items that required or generated cash that was not otherwise reflected in the income statement. 最后，到「经营活动产生的现金流量」：我们将从利润表中报告的9,222美元净利润开始，根据经营活动实际产生或消耗的现金情况进行调整，调整出经营活动产生的现金流量净额。下面是调整的过程： First, depreciation of $500. Rather than taking a $20,000 deduction on the company's income statement, Bob is able to write off a piece of the widget stamp for each of the next ten years. In this case, Bob is writing $500 off his tax return each quarter for the next forty quarters. Although it is a perfectly legal write-off, the depreciation does not require a cash outlay; so, we add the depreciation back in to the $9,222 as we reconcile net income to net cash from operations. 首先是500美元的折旧。虽然Bob在一季度花了20,000美元购买了机器，但是在利润表中并不会一下扣除这20,000美元，而是将这笔费用均摊到10年。在这个例子中，Bob会在接下来的40个季度里每个季度记录500美元的折旧。虽然这笔折旧是法律意义上的费用，要在计算净利润时扣除，但是实际上并不需要现金支出（只是相应减少固定资产的价值，这个例子中的「厂房、地产以及设备」为19,500美元，就是最初的20,000美元减去了该季度的500美元折旧）。所以，我们在做调整时需要将折旧加回去，也就是净利润9,222美元加上500美元折旧。 Next, Accounts Receivable of $50,000. X-Widget Inc. recorded $50,000 of revenue, but has not yet collected that revenue; so, it is a charge that affected net income from operations, but didI not actually provide (or require) cash from operations. So, we have to back out the $50,000 from net income by showing a negative number for the increase in Accounts Receivable. 接下来是50,000美元的应收账款。X-Widget公司录入了50,000美元的收入，但是实际上还没有真正收到钱。在计算净利润时，这笔收入是被计算在内。所以，我们需要从净利润中将这笔钱抠出来。这就是为什么这50,000是负数的原因，表示要从净利润中减去。 Inventory. Bob has not manufactured any inventory that has yet to be sold; so, this is unchanged. 存货：Bob没有生产任何未销售出去的存货，所以保持为0。 Accounts Payable. X-Widget Inc. showed a $150 expense for the phone bill, but it only paid out $100. (See the "Accounts Payable” discussion above.) The company wrote off $150, but only used $100 of cash; so, Accounts Payable increased by $50 and we need to add that increase in to further reconcile net income to net cash from operations. 应付账款。通过前面的讨论，我们知道X-Widget公司在一季度中总共有150美元的电话费账单，但是只支付了其中的100美元。在计算净利润时，扣除了150美元，但现金支出只有100美元。因此，我们要把这还没有支付的50美元加回来。 Finally, Accrued Expenses. Here's where it gets hairy. Recall that Bob offered his sales associate a 25% commission for selling widgets. With a $50,000 order in hand, the sales associate earned a $12,500 commission. After spending $20,000 on the widget stamp, spending another $25,000 on the products needed to manufacture the widgets, having paid $100 of phone bills, having spent $1,000 on marketing materials, and having written Uncle Sam a check for $1,628 in taxes, Bob did not have enough cash left to pay the full commission. Bob had spent $47,728 of the $50,000 in the bank leaving him with just $2,272; so, he gave his sales associate $2,000 upfront and promised him the other $10,500 when the customer paid in full. 最后，应付费用。这是令人困惑的地方。Bob与销售人员达成的协议是25%的销售提成。对于这笔50,000美元的订单，应付给销售人员12,500美元提成。但是，Bob花了20,000美元买了机器，生产这5个饰品的材料费用为25,000美元（还记得嘛，每个饰品的成本为5,000美元），还付了100美元的电话费，又花了1,000美元制作市场宣传资料，再加上支付给政府的税费1,628美元，此时Bob已经用掉了47,728美元的现金，银行账户里只剩下2,272美元的现金了。这样，Bob没有足够的钱来支付所有的提成。于是，他先支付给销售2,000美元，并且承诺在收到客户的全部货款后一并支付其余部分（12,500 – 2,000 = 10,500）。 So, X-Widget has to carry a $10,500 Accrued Expense - $12,500 in commission deducted from net income minus $2,000 of cash that was paid to the sales associate. That is, $12,500 affected net income, but only $2,000 affected cash, leaving a balance of $10,500. 这就是10,500美元应付费用的由来。在计算净利润时，是扣除了所有的销售提成，但实际上目前仅支出了2,000美元的现金。所以，要把这10,500美元加回来。 And _that's_ how this profitable business went from $50,000 in the bank to just $272. 上面的2,272美元再减去2,000美元的提成，在公司的银行账户中就只剩下了272美元的现金。这就是一个看上去很赚钱的生意，却把50,000美元的现金变成只剩下272美元现金的过程。 # Bob vs. The Government: GAAP Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow vs. Owner Earnings Bob 与税收部门视角：会计收益 vs. 自由现金流 vs. 股东盈余 As far as Uncle Sam is concerned, Bob's business is thriving. With $10,850 of pre-tax earnings, Uncle Sam wants his $1,628 piece of the pie. Wall Street would also rejoice in Bob's success. With a modest price- to-earnings ratio of 10, Bob's stock would be trading at $92.22 ($9.22 per share x 10). He'd be able to sell his business in the stock market for $92,220-his 1,000 shares times $92.22 a share. 从税收部门的角度来看，Bob的生意兴隆。由于获得了10,850美元的税前利润，山姆大叔希望拿走其中的1,628美元（收税）。华尔街也对Bob的成功欢喜雀跃。按照10倍市盈率的估值（这是一个保守的估值），Bob的股票市场价格可以达到每股92.22美元（每股收益9.22美元乘以10）。这样，他可以在股市上将他的公司以92,220美元出售（他的1,000股股票乘以92.22美元）。 And perhaps he should. 他或许真应该这样做。 Let's take a look at X-Widget from Bob's perspective - an owner's perspective -by calculating owner earnings and free cash flow. 让我们从 Bob 的角度——所有者的角度——通过计算股东盈余和自由现金流来看看 X-Widget。 Free cash flow is simply calculated as: 自由现金流可以简单地按下面的公式计算： > Net cash provided by operating activities > > 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 > > \+ Purchases of property and equipment (Capital Expenditures, remember this is negative) > > \- 购买地产和设备的支出（资本支出） In the case of X-Widget, this would come out to: 对于X-Widget公司，自由现金流为： Amount|Items ---:|--- $ (29,728)|Net cash provided by operating activities
经营活动产生的现金流量净额 \+ $ (20,000)|Purchases of property and equipment
购买地产和设备的现金支出 || $ (49,728)|Free Cash Flow
自由现金流 In this case, we see that the business' operations - after spending the money to buy the widget stamp, without which there would be no operations - required $49,728 in cash. Now, let's get owner's earnings: 从这里，我们可以看到X-Widget的运营需要49,728美元的现金支持，其中包括了购买生产机器的20,000美元。我们再来看股东盈余，公式为： > Reported Earnings > > 报告利润 > > \+ Depreciation, Depletion, and Amortization > > \+ 折旧、损耗、摊销 > > \+ Certain Other Non-Cash Charges (that is, changes in working capital) > > \+ 其他的一些非现金支出（也就是营运资本变化） > > \+ Average Annual Capital Expenditures (when expressed as a negative number) > > \- 年度平均资本支出 We'll go line-by-line: 对于X-Widget公司，计算如下： Amount|Items ---:|--- $ 9,222|Net Income
净利润 \+ $ 500|Depreciation
折旧 \+ $ (50,000)|Accounts Receivable
应收账款 \+ $ 50|Accounts Payable
应付账款 \+ $ 10,500|Accrued Expenses
应付费用 \+ $ (913)|Average Annual (in this case,Quarterly) Capital Expenditures
年度平均资本支出（这里换算为平均每季度的资本支出） || $ (30,641)|Owner Earnings
股东盈余 If you are thinking, “Everything makes sense until the $(913) of capital expenditures. You lost me there,” don't worry. Here's the first discrepancy between free cash flow and owner earnings: 看到这里，你可能会想：「上面913之前的数字看上去都合理[^1]，不过无法理解这个913哪来的？」别担心，往下看。这是自由现金流与股东盈余之间的第一个差异： [^1]: Ponge 注：之前的数字就是经营活动产生的现金流量净额。 Free cash flow generally assumes that all capital expenditures are “average annual" capital expenditures. Though it is entirely possible that X-Widget Inc. would have to spend $20,000 each quarter to maintain its unit output, it's totally impractical and improbable. If the widget stamp is only good for five widgets, and then it has to be replaced for $20,000, X-Widget could not possibly sell them for just $10,000 a piece. 从自由现金流的公式上来看，它将当前的所有资本支出假设为年度平均资本支出，也就是这里购买机器的20,000美元支出。这就是意味着，X-Widget公司为了维持当前的产出，必须每个季度都要花20,000美元。这明显是有悖常理的。如果这台机器只能够生产5个饰品，然后就必须要被更换，那么每个饰品的售价就不可能只有10,000美元（明显是赔本买卖）。 Owner earnings requires a bit more insight and thought. In this case, X-Widget expects to run the widget stamp for ten years, after which it will sell it for scrap for about $3,000. In the first year, it won't require any maintenance; in the second year, Bob will have to invest $500 for regular maintenance of the widget stamp. As the machine ages, Bob will have to spend more and more to keep it running, until it makes sense to scrap the machine and buy a new one. 而从股东盈余的角度考虑，对企业生意的了解更进了一步。在这个例子中，X-Widget公司期望这台机器可以工作10年，然后报废以3,000美元卖掉。第一年里，这台机器不需要任何的维护；第二年，Bob需要花费500美元对它进行日常维护。随着时间的推移，维护费逐步提高，直到有一天不如买一台新的机器，把原来的报废掉。 To “to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume,” X-Widget will replace the machine every ten years, and will invest a total of $19,500 over those ten years to keep it running smooth-to maintain its unit volume. 就像巴菲特说的，“fully maintain its long term competitive position and its unit volume（维持其长期竞争地位和单位产能）”，为了达到这个目的，X-Widget公司需要每10年更换这台机器，并且在10年的工作年限内要另外投入19,500美元对它进行维护。 So, X-Widget's capital expenditures for the next ten years would look like this: 于是，在10年内，X-Widget公司的资本支出看起来是这样的（假设只有这一台机器，没有扩大生产）： Period|CapEx|Description ---|---:|--- Year 1
第一年|$ (20,000)|Buy the widget stamp
购买机器 Year 2
第二年|$ (500)|Regular maintenance
日常维护 Year 3
第三年|$ (1,000)|Regular maintenance
日常维护 Year 4
第四年|$ (1,500)|Regular maintenance
日常维护 Year 5
第五年|$ (2,000)|Regular maintenance
日常维护 Year 6
第六年|$ (2,500)|Regular maintenance
日常维护 Year 7
第七年|$ (3,000)|Regular maintenance
日常维护 Year 8
第八年|$ (3,000)|Regular maintenance
日常维护 Year 9
第九年|$ (3,000)|Regular maintenance
日常维护 Year 10
第十年|$ (3,000)|Regular maintenance
日常维护 Year 10
第十年|$ 3,000|Sale of widget stamp at end of year 10
第十年年底将机器卖掉的残值 || Total
合计|$ (36,500)|Total Capital Expenditures over ten years
十年里的资本支出合计 Annual
年度平均|$ (3,650)|Average Annual Capital Expenditures
年度平均资本支出 Quarterly
季度平均|$ (912.50)|Average Quarterly Capital Expenditures
季度平均资本支出 After Year 10, X-Widget would shell out another $20,000 - or the going rate at that time - for a new widget stamp and start the cycle again. 10年之后，X-Widget公司需要再支付20,000美元（根据到那个时候的经济情况可能多--通货膨胀，也可能少--通货紧缩），用以购买一台新的机器，再重复这个10年的过程。 And so, looking at three different measures, we see three very different stories. GAAP earnings tell us Bob's business is very profitable and that Bob is making money hand-over-fist. We certainly know that's not the case because Bob shelled out $50,000 and still can't afford to pay his sales associate a commission (nor can he pay himself a dime!) 好了，让我们再来看看这三种不同的评估，我们可以看到三种不同的故事。会计收益（也就是报表上的净利润）告诉我们Bob的生意大有利可图，而且正赚得盆满钵满。但我们知道实际情况并非如此，Bob花了50,000美元，可是他连销售人员的提成都无法支付（更不要说，公司还没有为他自己的劳动付一分钱工资）。 Looking at Free Cash Flow, we see a business that is operating at a $49,728 deficit. Though that was absolutely the case for the first quarter, we shouldn't expect that to be the case going forward, assuming it's business as usual. Bob will not need to spend $20,000 a quarter on capital expenditures. With Owner Earnings, we see a business that required $30,641 of cash for its operations in this quarter. While Free Cash Flow gives a more accurate portrayal of the particular quarter's performance, Owner Earnings takes a step back and looks at the business as an ongoing concern over many years. 从自由现金流上看，我们看到的是49,728美元的赤字。虽然这是第一个季度的实际情况，但是我们不会认为这种情况会延续下去。Bob不需要每个季度都在资本支出上花20,000美元。通过股东盈余，我们看到在第一个季度，X-Widget公司的业务需要30,641美元的现金来支撑。**从某一个具体的季度来说，自由现金流能够更加准确地反映当时的情况，是一个静态的快照；不过，股东利润是从多年连续经营的角度来考虑企业的生意，是一个动态的视角。** At this point, you may be thinking, “Well, I like to play it safe; so, I think Free Cash Flow is better." Let's look at a few more quarters before you jump to any conclusions. Later in this discussion, we'll talk about a few other caveats of Free Cash Flow that can make it a somewhat less attractive than owner earnings -particularly when there is more to the cash flow statement than in the following, simplified example. 此时，你可能会想：「我还是希望更保守一些。我觉得自由现金流更好。」在做出判断之前，让我们来看一下公司在连续运营了多个季度的情况。在后面的讨论中，我们将讨论自由现金流的其他一些注意事项，这些注意事项可能会使自由现金流的吸引力低于股东盈余，尤其是当现金流量表的内容比下面这个简化的例子更多的时候。 # X-Widget Performance (Income Statement) X-Widget 公司的业绩表现（利润表） **Three Years of Financial Performance Income Statement, for the fiscal years ended December 31,** 让我们来看看X-Widget公司3个财年的业绩情况，每个财年结束日期为每年的12月31日（美国公司的财年可能跨两个自然年）。 Items|2008|2007|2006 ---|---:|---:|---: Gross Revenues
营业总收入|$ 340,000|$ 260,000|$ 170,000  Cost of goods sold
 销售商品的成本|(163,200)|(128,700)|(85,000)   Gross Operating Profit
  营业毛利润|176,800|131,300|85,000   Gross Margin
  营业毛利率|52%|51%|50% |||| Expenses
费用|  Marketing
 市场费用|(4,000)|(3,200)|(1,800)  Telephone
 电话费|(600)|(600)|(600)  Commission
 销售提成|(85,000)|(65,000)|(42,500)  Depreciation
 折旧|(2,150)|(2,050)|(2,000)  Salaries
 薪酬|(76,000)|(58,000)|(36,000)   Total Expenses
  费用合计|(167,750)|(128,850)|(82,900) |||| Earnings, before taxes
税前利润|9,050|2,450|2,100  Provision for taxes
 预提税|(1,358)|(368)|(315) Net Income
净利润|$ 7,693|$ 2,083|$ 1,785 Earnings Per Share
每股净利润|$ 7.69|$ 2.08|$ 1.79 At a quick glance, you can see that X-Widget has been increasing its gross margin. It's costing less and less to make more and more widgets. This could be a function of lower material costs; or, it could be that X-Widget is getting better pricing because of the volume of business it is doing with its suppliers. (You'd have to check the annual reports to find out.) 你可以看到，X-Widget公司的毛利率逐年上升。产量的增加伴随着单位成本的下降。这有可能是原材料价格的下降；或者是随着生产量越来越，X-Widget的议价能力提升，从供应商那里拿到了更好的价格（具体是什么原因，可以从年报中获知）。 The company has been increasing its marketing efforts which can be a good thing if the marketing is effective. Depreciation has been creeping up - a result of the ongoing “regular maintenance" expenditures laid out previously. 市场费用逐年增加，这在市场投入能有效拉动销售的情况下是好现象。折旧也在逐渐增加 – 这是由于每年的日常维护费用逐渐增加所致。 Bob began taking a salary in 2006, and has been increasing that over time-from $36,000 to $76,000. Bob开始在2006年从公司领取工资，在三年中从$ 36,000增加到$ 76,000。 Let's turn to the balance sheets on the next page. 现在，让我们来看资产负债表。 # X-Widget Performance (Balance Sheet) X-Widget 公司的业绩表现（资产负债表） **Three Years of Financial Performance Balance Sheet, as of December 31,** Items|2008|2007|2006 ---|---:|---:|---: **ASSETS
资产**|  Current Assets
 流动资产|   Cash & Cash Equivalents
  现金和现金等价物|$ 1,311|$ 7,468|$ 3,835   Accounts Receivable
  应收账款|30,000|25,000|20,000   Inventories
  存货|15,000|5,000|10,000  Total Current Assets
 流动资产合计|46,311|37,468|33,835  PPE, net
 厂房、地产以及设备|15,300|16,450|18,000 TOTAL ASSETS
资产合计|61,611|53,918|51,835 |||| **LIABILITIES & STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
负债及股东权益**|  Current Liabilities
 流动负债|   Accounts Payable
  应付账款|50|50|50   Accrued Expenses
  应付费用|-|-|-  Total Current Liabilities
 流动负债合计|50|50|50 ||||  Stockholders' Equity
 股东权益|   Common Stock, 10,000 shares authorized, 1,000 issued and outstanding
  普通股，额定股份 10,000 股，已发行的流通股份为 1,000 股|1,000|1,000|1,000   Add'l Paid-In Capital
  资本公积|49,000|49,000|49,000   Retained Earnings
  留存收益|11,561|3,868|1,785  Total Equity
 股东权益合计|61,561|53,868|51,785 TOTAL LIABILITIES & STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
负债及股东权益合计|61,661|53,918|51,835 Summary: Each year, X-Widgets has ended the year with more sales outstanding than the prior year- not a cause for joy or concern; it is what it is. We'll see if it's problematic in owner earnings. We also see that the company built an inventory of $10,000 in 2006, depleted it a bit in 2007, and built it back up in 2008. PPE shows the ongoing depreciation of the widget stamp as it becomes less and less valuable. 总结：X-Widget公司的应收账款逐年增加 – 这既非什么可喜之事，也没什么可担心的。我们将在股东盈余中查看这是否会带来什么问题。我们还可以看到公司的存货在2006年达到了10,000美元，在2007年降低了一些，然后在2008年存货又涨回来了。从厂房、地产以及设备科目，我们可以看到生产机器的折旧，价值越来越低。 On the liabilities side, we see that the company ends each year with $50 of Accounts Payable. That is the $50 December phone bill that is due on January 10th of the following year. 在负债端，我们看到公司每年年底都有50美元的应付账款。这是12月的电话费，将会在来年的1月10日前付清。 Finally, we see that retained earnings has grown as the company continues to show profits each year. 最后，由于公司每年都实现了盈利，留存收益随之逐年增加。 Let's move on to the statement of cash flows. 接下来，我们来看现金流量表。 # X-Widget Performance (Statement of Cash Flows) X-Widget 公司的业绩表现（现金流量表） **Three Years of Financial Performance Statement of Cash Flows, for the fiscal years ended December 31,** Items|2008|2007|2006 ---|---:|---:|---: **Operating Activities:
经营活动产生的现金流量**|  Net Income
 净利润|$ 7,693|$ 2,083|$ 1,785  Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
 将净利润调节为经营活动现金流量|   Depreciation
  折旧与摊销|2,150|2,050|2,000   Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
  经营资产及负债的变化|    Accounts Receivable
   应收账款|(5,000)|(5,000)|(20,000)    Inventories
   存货|(10,000)|5,000|(10,000)    Accounts Payable
   应付账款|-|-|50    Accrued Expenses
   应付费用|-|-|- Net cash provided by Operating activities:
经营活动产生的现金流量净额|(5,157)|4,133|(26,165) |||| **Investing Activities:
投资活动产生的现金流量**|  Capital Expenditures
 购买地产和设备支付的现金|(1,000)|(500)|(20,000) Net cash provided by Investing activities:
投资活动产生的现金流量净额|(1,000)|(500)|(20,000) |||| **Financing Activities:
筹资活动产生的现金流量**|  Proceeds from issuance of treasury stock
 发行库存股所得收益|-|-|1,000  Changes in additional Paid-in capital
 资本公积变化|-|-|49,000 Net cash provided by Financing activities:
筹资活动产生的现金流量净额|-|-|50,000 |||| Cash, beginning
期初现金及现金等价物余额|7,468|3,835|- Cash, ending
期末现金及现金等价物余额|1,311|7,468|3,835 And now we can piece together the whole story and come up with Free Cash Flow and Owner Earnings. In this case, we see that the company had $20,000 more in Accounts Receivable at the end of 2006 than it had in the beginning of the year. In 2007, it had $5,000 more than at the end of 2006; in 2008, it had $5,000 more than in 2007. (This is confirmed on the balance sheet.) 现在，我们可以把整个故事拼凑起来，得出自由现金流和股东盈余。在这个案例中，我们可以看到，X-Widget公司的应收账款在2006年年底时比当年年初多20,000美元；在2007年年底，比2006年年底多5,000美元；在2008年年底，比2007年年底多5,000美元。从资产负债表中，可以确认这些数字。 We also see how the inventories affected cash - to build the $10,000 inventory reserve in 2006 required $10,000 of cash. In 2007, the company reduced its inventory by $5,000-that is, it sold $5,000 worth of widgets it did not have to manufacture that year, resulting in additional cash from the net income (thus the positive inventory change in 2007). 同时，我们也看到了存货是如何影响现金流的。2006年年底的存货为10,000美元，这需要消耗10,000美元的现金（存货是以成本入账的，而不是以售价入账）。在2007年，公司减少了5,000美元的存货 – 也就是说，在2007年销售的产品中，有5,000美元的产品是2007年不用生产的（没有耗费2007年的现金），所以也就为2007年的现金流带来了额外的现金。 Let's get to the Free Cash Flow versus Owner Earnings calculations: 让我们来分别计算一下自由现金流和股东盈余： Items|2008|2007|2006 ---|---:|---:|---: Free Cash Flow:
自由现金流|  Cash from Operations
 经营活动产生的现金流量净额|$ (5,157)|$ 4,133|$ (26,165)  Capital Expenditures
 资本支出|(1,000)|(500)|(20,000) Total Free Cash Flow:
自由现金流合计|(6,157)|3,633|(46,165) |||| Owner Earnings:
股东盈余|  Net Income
 净利润|7,693|2,083|1,785  Depreciation
 折旧|2,150|2,050|2,000  Accounts Receivable
 应收账款|(5,000)|(5,000)|(20,000)  Inventories
 存货|(10,000)|5,000|(10,000)  Accounts Payable
 应付账款|-|-|50  Capital Expenditures
 资本支出|(3,650)|(3,650)|(3,650) Total Owner Earnings:
股东盈余合计|(8,807)|483|(29,815) The big difference between these two numbers - in this very simplified example - is that Free Cash Flow does not take into account future capital spending, treating it instead like a one-time event in the past. As Buffett explained, “\[Ignoring future capital expenditures implies\] that the business being offered is the commercial counterpart of the Pyramids - forever state-of-the-art, never needing to be replaced, improved or refurbished." 即使是在这个极其简化的例子中，自由现金流与股东利润也出现了比较大的差别，这主要是因为自由现金流并没有考虑未来的资本支出，而将资本支出视为过去的一次性开销。正如巴菲特所说（1986年的信）：“（忽略未来的资本支出意味着）这些生意就像是金字塔在商业世界中的化身 —— 永远是技术最先进的，从来不需要更换、改进或翻新。” With owner earnings, you are attempting to figure out how much cash would be left over for owners if the business budgeted for future capital expenditures.Some businesses do plan and budget very well, thus helping assure investors that capital expenditures will remain fairly constant from year to year. Such is not the case with X-Widgets. For example, in 2009 X-Widgets will need to spend $1,500 to maintain its widget stamp machine. The company has just $1,311 in cash. **从股东盈余的角度，是在预算中考虑了公司的业务未来所需的资本支出之后，还剩下多少现金供公司的股东分配**。有的公司在这方面的预算做得非常好，这可以帮助投资者确定公司的资本支出在未来可以保持在一个稳定的水平。可X-Widget公司并非如此。比如，在2009年用于维护机器需要花费1,500美元。但截止2008年年底，公司账上却只有1,311美元的现金。 As sales come in, Bob will figure out how to budget for this year's spending. What about next year? What will happen in 2016 when the widget stamp will have to be entirely replaced for $20,000 (or more)? In this example, Free Cash Flow shows a “tough” business; Owner Earnings shows a business that is headed for certain trouble if it continues on its present course. Come 2016, Bob will have to put up more cash, thus hurting his return on investment. In the public markets, this is the equivalent of your company issuing debt or stock, thereby diluting your ownership and hurting your return on investment (via reduced intrinsic value). 2008年底，公司账上有30,000美元的应收账款，随着货款的回收，Bob应该可以支付2009年的维护费。那再下一年又如何呢？到2016年，整台机器需要被更换，这需要花费20,000美元（或更多），这又如何处理呢？自由现金流显示，X-Widget公司的生意很艰难；而股东利润显示，如果继续这么经营下去，公司将会碰到一定程度的困难。到了2016年，Bob必须要投入更多的现金以维持公司的运转，这将会降低他的投资回报率。在公开交易的股票市场上，这就相当于你的公司发行债务或增发股票（为了维持当前的经营，而非扩张），由此将会稀释你的股权并损害你的投资回报率（因为公司的内在价值降低了）。 The difference between Free Cash Flow and Owner Earnings extends far beyond the projection of capital expenditures.To better understand, let's look at a more complicated example. 自由现金流与股东盈余之间的差别不仅仅来源于资本支出的变化。下面是一个更加复杂的例子。 # General Motors Corporation (Statement of Cash Flows) 通用汽车公司（现金流量表） **Three Years of Financial Performance Partial Statement of Cash Flows, for the fiscal years ended December 31, (in millions)** 下表是通用汽车公司现金流量表（部分），单位为百万美元 Items|2007|2006|2005 ---|---:|---:|---: Cash flows from operating activities
经营活动产生的现金流量|  Net loss
 净亏损|$ (38,732)|$ (1,978)|$ (10,417)   Less income from discontinued operations
  减：非持续经营收益或停业部门经营收益|$ 4,565|$ 445|$ 313   Less cumulative effect of a change in accounting principle
  减：会计准则改变带来的累积影响|$ -|$ -|$ (109)  Loss from continuing operations
 持续经营亏损|$ (43,297)|$ (2,423)|$ (10,621)  Adjustments to reconcile loss from continuing operations to net cash provided by (used in) continuing operating activities:
 将持续经营亏损调节为持续经营活动现金流量|   Depreciation, impairments and amortization expense
  折旧、损耗和摊销|$ 9,513|$ 10,885|$ 15,732   Mortgage servicing rights and premium amortization
  按揭服务权和溢价摊销|$ -|$ 1,021|$ 1,142   Goodwill impairment – GMAC
  商誉减值 - GMAC|$ -|$ 828|$ 712   Delphi charge
  德尔福相关支出|$ 1,547|$ 500|$ 5,500   Loss on sale of 51% interest in GMAC
  出售 GMAC 51% 股权的损失|$ -|$ 2,910|$ -   Provision for credit financing losses
  信用损失计提|$ -|$ 1,799|$ 1,074   Net gains on sale of credit receivables
  出售信用应收账款的净收益|$ -|$ (1,256)|$ (1,741)   Net gains on sale of investment securities
  出售投资证券的净收益|$ -|$ (1,006)|$ (104)   Other postretirement employee benefit (OPEB) expense
  员工退休后的其他福利（OPEB）费用|$ 2,362|$ 3,567|$ 5,650   OPEB payments
  员工退休后的其他福利（OPEB）缴款|$ (3,751)|$ (3,802)|$ (4,084)   VEBA/401(h) withdrawals|$ 1,694|$ 3,061|$ 3,168   Pension expense
  养老金费用|$ 1,799|$ 4,911|$ 2,495   Pension contributions
  养老金缴款|$ (937)|$ (1,032)|$ (833)   Retiree lump sum and vehicle voucher expense, net of payments
  退休人员一次性费用、车辆凭证费用|$ -|$ (325)|$ (264)   Net change in mortgage loans
  按揭贷款净变化|$ -|$ (21,578)|$ (29,119)   Net change in mortgage securities
  抵押证券净变化|$ -|$ 427|$ (1,155)   Provisions for deferred taxes
  递延所得税计提|$ 36,977|$ (4,166)|$ (6,731)   Change in other investments and miscellaneous assets
  其他杂项投资和资产的变化|$ 663|$ (477)|$ (690)   Change in other operating assets and liabilities, net of acquisitions and disposals
  营运资本变化|$ (3,412)|$ (8,512)|$ 20   Other
  其它|$ 4,349|$ 2,318|$ 2,679 Net cash provided by (used in) continuing operating activities
持续经营活动产生的现金流量净额|$ 7,507|$ (12,350)|$ (17,170) Cash provided by discontinued operating activities
非持续经营活动产生的现金流量净额|$ 224|$ 591|$ 314 Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities
经营活动产生的现金流量净额|$ 7,731|$ (11,759)|$ (16,856) Expenditures for Property
资本支出|$ (7,542)|$ (7,902)|$ (8,141) \* GMAC – 通用汽车金融服务公司。2006年，通用集团为挽救集团公司，将GMAC的51%股权以140亿美元出售给赛伯乐资产管理公司(Cerberus Capital Management)。 \* 德尔福（Delphi）相关支出 – 通用集团是美国全球最大汽车零配件商DELPHI CORP（德尔福公司）的母公司，2005年德尔福由于亏损申请破产保护，由此使得通用公司背负的一些债务。 # General Motors Corporation: Analyzing The Numbers 通用汽车公司：财务分析 In the case of General Motors, the Free Cash Flow and the Owner Earnings yield drastically different results. 对于通用公司而言，使用自由现金流与使用股东盈余的区别非常之大。 Items|2007|2006|2005 ---|---:|---:|---: Free Cash Flow:
自由现金流|  Cash from Operations
 经营活动产生的现金流量净额|$ 7,731|$ (11,759)|$ (16,856)  Capital Expenditures
 资本支出|(7,542)|(7,902)|(8,141) Total Free Cash Flow
自由现金流合计|189|(19,661)|(24,997) |||| Owner Earnings:
股东盈余|  Net Income from continuing operations
 持续经营活动产生的净利润|(43,297)|(2,423)|(10,621)  Depreciation, Impairments, & Amortization
 折旧、损耗与摊销|9,513|10,885|15,732  Change in other operating assets and liabilities, net of acquisitions and disposals
 营运资本变化|(3,412)|(8,512)|20  Capital Expenditures
 资本支出|(7,893)|(7,893)|(7,893) Tentative Owner Earnings(1)
股东盈余初算|(45,089)|(7,943)|(2,762) (1) After the following discussion about Free Cash Flow versus Owner Earnings, see the discussion on Depreciation vs. Capital Expenditures for a final calculation of GM's Owner Earnings. (1) 在下面关于自由现金流与股东盈余的讨论之后，请参阅关于折旧与资本支出的讨论，以了解通用汽车股东盈余的最终计算结果。 The 2007 Free Cash Flow shows that General Motors generated $189 million from its operations, a turnaround from its Free Cash Flow losses of $20 billion and $25 billion in 2006 and 2005, respectively. Focused solely on Free Cash Flow, an investor analyzing the business might see the 2006 loss of $20 billion - $5 billion better than in 2005 - as a sign of improvement. When General Motors began generating positive Free Cash Flow in 2007, an investor might mistakenly believe that General Motors had fixed its problems, turned the corner, and was potentially poised for growth. 2007年的自由现金流展示出来是，通用公司的经营活动产生了1.89亿美元的正现金流，而2005年是负的近250亿美元、2006年是负的近200亿美元。如果投资者仅仅关注自由现金流，将会看到2006年比2005年少损失了50亿美元 – 业绩正在得到改善的迹象。然后在2007年产生了正的现金流，投资者可能会误认为通用公司已经解决了自身的问题，转危为安，很有可能重回增长。 Owner Earnings tells a different story. 不过，股东盈余却告诉我们一个不同的故事。 Starting with Net Income (Loss) from continuing operations (we need to see the performance of the ongoing business), we add in depreciation, amortization, and impairments. We add in the net change to working capital (less the change in cash, in this case - “Change in other operating assets and liabilities, net of acquisitions and disposals"). Finally, we take into account the cash outflows for capital expenditures, of which General Motors has had $71 billion over the last nine years, or about $7,893 million a year. 从持续经营活动（因为我们关心的是可持续的业务）产生的净利润开始，加上折旧、损耗与摊销。再加上营运资本变化。最后，我们需要考虑的是资本支出。通用公司在过去9年中的资本支出约为710亿美元，或者说大约每年78.93亿美元。 Owner Earnings shows us that General Motors' business burned through $2.7 billion of cash in 2005. Things worsened in 2006 as the business consumed $7.9 billion. Though Free Cash Flow showed 2007 to be the best of the three years, Owner Earnings shows it to be the worst of all - consuming more than $45 billion. 股东盈余显示通用公司在2005年烧光了27亿美元的现金。2006年情况更糟，花掉了79亿美元。虽然自由现金流显示2007年是三年中最好的一年，但是从股东盈余上看却是最糟糕的一年——消耗了超过450亿美元。 Why the discrepancy? In this case, the capital expenditures had very little effect on the difference between Free Cash Flow and Owner Earnings. Instead, the difference is found in non-cash charges that GM deducted from earnings, but that were added back in when reconciling the statement of cash flows. Free Cash Flow blindly assumes that all of those expenses should benefit owners; Owner Earnings sees many of those expenses as potentially dilutive and/or future commitments, and does not credit owners. Let me explain with some examples from the General Motors statement of cash flows. I'll touch on and explain some of the common adjustments you'll see on statements of cash flows: 为什么有这么大的差别呢？在这个例子中，资本支出对结果的影响很小。**主要的影响来自于一些非现金的支出**，这些支出在计算净利润时被扣除，不过在将净利润调节为现金流时这些非现金支出被加了回去。**自由现金流盲目地假设这些非现金费用是有益于股权所有人的；而股东盈余则认为其中很多的费用是对股东利益潜在的摊薄、亦或是未来必然的支出，而并非能够被股权所有人自由分配的**。让我以通用汽车公司的现金流量表为例进行解释。我将对现金流量表中常见的一些调整进行介绍和解释： **Other postretirement employee benefit (OPEB) expense; OPEB payments:** In 2007, General Motors deducted $2,362 from its net income as an OPEB expense, offset by OPEB cash payments of $3,751.The net result of the OPEB expense was a reduction in cash of $1.4 billion. In 2005, GM took a $5.65 billion write-off for the OPEB expense, but only paid out $4.01 billion in cash, netting GM positive cash flow from the OPEB expenses of $1.24 billion. **员工退休后的其它福利（OPEB）：OPEB费用和OPEB缴款**：这是除去养老金以外的其它福利。（OPEB费用是指这部分费用应该是多少，而OPEB缴款是实际缴纳的现金，这两者之间在一年中可能会不同。）2007年，通用公司从净利润中扣除了23.62亿美元作为OPEB费用，而当年实际缴纳的现金达到37.51亿美元（比OPEN费用多了14亿美元，可能是为了补缴以前落下的）。这样带来的结果就是在现金流中减去14亿美元。在2005年，通用公司记录了56.5亿美元的OPEB费用，但只缴纳了40.1亿美元的现金，这样就带来了16.4亿美元的正现金流。 With Free Cash Flow, the $1.4 billion spent in 2007 is deducted from cash flow from operations; in 2005, Free Cash Flow considers that $1.24 billion as cash generated by operations. Owner Earnings looks at it and says, “At some point, the OPEB expense and OPEB payment will have to cancel each other out because GM can't have a surplus of retirement benefits if everyone retires and cashes out of the plan.” Regardless of how much or how little GM management decided to pay into the OPEB, it is a real expense that belongs in net income and should not be reconciled as a “non-cash” charge. It will eventually have to be paid; so, we leave it in net income. (It's similar to averaging capital expenditures - the company will eventually have to spend the money, even if it doesn't do so this year.) 在计算自由现金流时，2007年花掉的14亿美元被从经营活动的现金流中减去；而在2005年，自由现金流认为那16.4亿美元是经营活动产生的现金。股东盈余则认为：「让我们假设公司的所有员工都一起退休了，那么公司就将会付清所有的OPEB费用。所以在某个时间点，OPEB费用与OPEB缴款之间不会有差额，将会相互抵消的。」无论公司管理层决定今年实际缴纳多少OPEB，OPEB费用都是实实在在的费用终将会被支付，应该在净利润中被扣除，而不应该被当作非现金支出进行调节。这类似于使用多年资本支出的平均值——虽然不会在今年支出，但终究会付这笔钱。 **Provision for deferred taxes.** The 2007 statement of cash flows shows a $36.977 billion provision for deferred taxes. Here's the short answer: Eventually, Uncle Sam will want his money; so, to reconcile the tax expense on the net income to any “deferred” taxes is silly. “Accordingly, based on our current circumstances and uncertainty regarding our future taxable income, we recorded full valuation allowances against these net deferred tax assets during the third quarter of 2007. If and when our operating performance improves on a sustained basis, our conclusion regarding the need for full valuation allowances could change, resulting in the reversal of some or all of the valuation allowances in the future." **递延所得税计提**：在2007年的现金流量表中显示，计提了369.77亿美元的递延所得税。简单的回答就是：山姆大叔终究会拿走这笔钱；所以说，在净利润的基础上将任何递延税项进行调节的作法都是自欺欺人的。“根据我们当前的情况以及未来应税收入的不确定性，我们在2007年3季度中在备抵计价账户中全额记录了这些净递延所得税资产。如果在将来，当我们的业绩改善并得以持续时，备抵计价账户中的部分或甚至于全部都不再需要了。”（意思是，如果公司的业绩好转到了一定程度，就需要把以前没有缴纳的那部分税给补上）。 So, if GM returns to profitability, it will need to pay these taxes. To put it simply, GM reduced its deferred tax assets (a non-current asset, not working capital) on its balance sheet from $33.1 billion to $2.1 billion, and experienced an increase in its deferred tax liabilities (a non-current liability, also not working capital) of roughly $7 billion. Putting aside the tax dance, keep in mind that Uncle Sam will want to get paid.The 2007 tax bill of $37.2 billion reduced net income. 所以，如果通用公司的业绩反转，它就需要补缴这部分税。简单点说，通用公司在资产负债表中的递延所得税资产（这是非流动资产，不是营运资本）里进行了扣减，从331亿美元减到了21亿美元；同时，在递延所得税负债（非流动负债，也不属于营运资本）中增加了大约70亿美元。把这些税收艺术先放在一边，记住山姆大叔时时刻刻惦记着这笔钱的。2007年的税单是基于扣减了这372亿美元的净利润来征收的。 Free Cash Flow adds in the deferred taxes as though the company will never have to pay them - as if the $37 billion of taxes GM owes to the Government is a gift. According to Free Cash Flow, GM owners could effectively pulI that $37 billion of cash out of the business. Uncle Sam would definitely have something to say about that. 自由现金流把这笔递延所得税加了回来，就好像公司永远不必支付它 – 仿佛这笔370亿美元的税务账单是政府送给通用公司的礼物。基于自由现金流，通用公司的股东们可以自由地把这370亿美元放进自己的钱包。如果这样做，我想山姆大叔一定会说点什么。 Owner Earnings does not reconcile the deferred taxes because it recognizes that GM will eventually have to pay this expense or it will be out of business. 股东盈余认识到通用公司终究会支付这笔钱，或者是公司业务一败涂地、关门歇业。所以并没有在计算股东盈余时，在净利润的基础上对递延所得税进行调节。 **Stock-Based Compensation Expense.** Though GM does not have any stock-based compensation expense listed on the statement of cash flows, it is a common item you will likely find on many cash flow statements. When a company issues stock options, it generally expenses those options from net income. Stock options can help a company reduce its tax liability, but do not require a cash outlay. Free Cash Flow presumes that the cash benefit from issuing stock options belongs to owners; so, it adds in the stock-based compensation expense. Owner Earnings does the opposite - it sees stock options for what they are (dilutive to owners) and does not reconcile them. Instead, it leaves the expense alone by using net income and ignoring the stock-based compensation expense on the statement of cash flows. **股权激励费用**：虽然通用公司的现金流量表中没有任何股权激励的费用，但这却是在很多公司中常见的一项内容。当一家公司发行股票期权时，通常会将这些期权的费用从净利润中扣除。使用股票期权可以减少公司的缴税额，但是并不会产生现金支出。自由现金流认为这部分现金是属于股东的，所以将其加了回来。而股东利润恰恰相反——它认识到股票期权的本质就是对股东利益的摊薄，并不对其进行调节。 # The Question You Must Ask: Why is this cash here? 一个你必须问的问题：为什么这笔现金在这？ When deciding whether or not to include an item in your owner earnings calculation, you must ask yourself, “Why is this cash here (or gone)?” In the case of GM's 2005 OPEB acrobatics, GM ended up with $1.24 billion more than it expensed from net income that year. Eventually, GM would have to pay that cash out; so, it is not cash that belongs to owners. 当我们在决定是否将某个项目包含在股东盈余的计算中时，我们必须回答一个问题：“为什么这笔现金在这（或者不应该计算在内）？”比如通用公司2005年中“员工退休后的其它福利OPEB”项目，（在计算自由现金流时）犹如变戏法一般在净利润上增加了16.4亿美元的现金。可是这并非股东的钱，毕竟通用公司终将会支付这笔钱。 What about those operating assets and liabilities? To best understand why you include working capital in your equation, go back to Bob's company -X-Widget Inc. Bob invested $50,000 in his business and showed a GAAP profit in his very first quarter. Still, Bob's business required more than $49,000 of cash to get started. To stay in business, one of two things had to happen: 那么为什么那些营运资本变化要包含在股东盈余计算之中呢？为了更好地理解这一点，让我们回到X-Widget公司这个例子。Bob投入了50,000美元，而且在最初的第一个季度就显示了盈利（从会计的角度）。然而，Bob为了启动这个生意耗费了超过49,000美元的现金。为了支撑企业继续经营下去，下面两件事情中的其中一件必然要发生： 1. The customer would have to pay the $50,000 (Accounts Receivable);or, 客户支付50,000美元（应收账款）的货款；或者 2. Bob would have to come up with more money. Bob要设法获得更多的钱。 Now, Bob could have reduced his tax liability by issuing stock to his employee rather than paying a commission. Would that have increased his cash flow? Yes and no. On the one hand, Bob would not have to shell out any cash in the form of commission, thereby increasing his cash available for growth; on the other hand, Bob would no longer be sole owner of the company, but a partner with his employee. Bob would effectively dilute his ownership and be entitled to less of the value of the company going forward. 此时，Bob可以向他的员工（那个销售人员）发行股票而不是支付提成，这样Bob就可以减少税收。那这样做会增加他的现金流吗？会也不会。一方面，Bob可以不必为支付提成而耗费现金，从而相当于增加了为公司业务可用的现金；另一方面，Bob就不再是该公司的唯一股东，而变成了他员工的合伙人。Bob可以在以后进一步摊薄他的股份。 In the Accounts Receivable example, the answer to the question would be: “Because the company has an outstanding order for $50,000” -the cash is here or gone because of operations. In the stock options example, the answer to the question would be: “Because Bob tried to save cash” - the cash is here or gone because of a decision by management to preserve (or use excess) cash. 对于应收账款，这个问题的答案是「因为公司有一笔50,000美元的订单待支付」——经营活动的逻辑决定了是否应该包含这笔现金。对于股票期权，这个问题的答案是「因为Bob尝试节约现金」——管理者的决定（节约或者超用现金）决定了是否应该包含改变现金。 # General Motors Corporation: Getting to Final Owner Earnings 通用汽车公司：得到最终股东盈余 There is one last step to calculating GM's Owner Earnings - a step that is not extremely common, but worth noting (and calculating) in this example. Depreciation is a non-cash charge that allows a company to spread the cost of an asset over the course of many years. The idea behind depreciation is that it helps companies smooth out GAAP earnings. 要计算股东盈余，只剩下最后一步了——非常不同寻常的一步，不过在这个例子中却表现得一文不值。折旧是一笔非现金支出，企业可以以折旧的方式将资产的成本分摊到未来的数年中。折旧是为了帮助公司平滑其会计收益。 Over the long-term, the difference between total depreciation and total capital expenditures should be zero. That is, if a company spends $10,000 on a piece of equipment and the IRS allows the company to depreciate the asset over ten years, the company will take a $1,000 depreciation expense in each of the ten years. At the end of ten years, the company will have paid $10,000 for the capital expenditure and will have “earned” via a tax deduction $10,000 ($1,000 a year times 10 years) in depreciation. 从长远来看，总的折旧与总的资本支出应该是相等的。如果一家公司花费了10,000美元购买了某设备，美国国税局（IRS）允许公司在接下来的10年对该设备进行折旧，那么公司就可以每年记录1,000美元的折旧费用。10年期满后，公司在该设备上的资本支出是10,000美元，同时通过折旧总共获得了10,000美元（每年1,000，总共10年）的税款减免。 This is not to say that you should take the short-hand method of merely cancelling out depreciation and capital expenditures from your calculations. While the above is true when looking at a business from its starting point until the point at which it winds up its operations, it is not necessarily true in any given year or so long as the business is an ongoing operation. 但这并不代表你就可以简单地将折旧和资本支出从你的计算过程中完全拿掉。如果我们把一个公司的业务简单地看作一个有起点和终点的过程，那么折旧和资本支出是可以被忽略的。但对于某一特定的年份，或者只要是一个持续经营的公司，这就不一定成立了。 This is where capital expenditures and depreciation get tricky. When a company is spending a lot more on capital expenditures than it is recording as depreciation, it is for one of two reasons: 这就是资本支出和折旧变得复杂的地方。有两种原因，可能使得公司的资本支出比记录的折旧费用高： 1. The company must make capital expenditures that exceed depreciation merely to maintain competitive; and/or, 一种原因是公司仅仅为了维持其竞争地位，就必须耗费比折旧更大的资本支出； 2. The business is making capital expenditures above and beyond its requisite “regular maintenance” capital expenditures. (These are usually called “Growth Capital Expenditures” versus "Maintenance Capital Expenditures" though most annual reports do not separate the two for investors; so, an investor must make educated assumptions about capital expenditures. Such appeared to be the case when we analyzed Wal-Mart: www.fwallstreet.com/blog/44.htm.) 另一种原因是公司的资本支出花费了远远超出必要的日常维护的资本支出（这常常被称为“扩张性资本支出”，相对应的是“维护性资本支出”，不过在公司年报中一般并没有将二者分列报告。所以，投资者必须基于对企业的了解来估计资本支出。我们在[分析沃尔玛](www.fwallstreet.com/blog/44.htm)时似乎就是这种情况。） GM has precisely the opposite - depreciation and amortization greatly exceeds capital expenditures, an obviously impossible situation since future capital expenditures have to be made to cause future depreciation. This would lead us to one of two conclusions: 通用公司的情况正好相反——折旧、摊销费用远远大于资本支出，这明显是不可能的情况，因为在将来资本支出终将会支出。根据这个情况，我们可以判断这可能是下面两种情况之一： 1. GM is not spending enough to maintain its plant, property, and equipment; or, 通用公司没有对它的厂房、设备等固定资产进行足够的维护；或者是 2. This is a temporary state of affairs due to the purchase of a long-life assets (such as a building) or because goodwill or other intangibles are being amortized over extremely long periods. 这只是一种临时状态，可能是由于购买了生命周期很长的资产（比如建筑物），或者是商誉或其它无形资产的摊销时间非常长。 In this case, we can't assume this happy state of “taking bigger tax write-offs than we're normally allowed” will continue forever. Because we know that, over the long-term, capital expenditures and depreciation will provide a net sum of zero, and because we're not worried about _understating_ capital expenditures (because depreciation is greater than capital expenditures), we can assume that depreciation and capital expenditures are the same for General Motors under normal conditions.Any excess benefit it receives today by taking large depreciation write-offs will be offset in the future by larger capital expenditures. 超出寻常的高折旧、摊销费用在税款抵扣上带来了很大好处，但是我们不能认为这样的欢乐时光会永远继续下去。因为我们知道，从长远来看，资本支出和折旧会趋于一致。在当前由于高折旧所带来的税收好处，将来也会由于大的资本支出而被抵消的。因为现在的情况是折旧费用大于资本支出，我们可以假设通用公司的折旧和资本支出在一般情况下是相同的，这样就不用担心会低估资本支出。 So, our final owner earnings calculation for GM would be as follows: 于是，对于通用公司的股东利润的最终计算如下： Items|2007|2006|2005 ---|---:|---:|---: Owner Earnings:
股东盈余|  Net Income from continuing operations
 持续经营活动产生的净利润|(43,297)|(2,423)|(10,621)  Change in other operating assets and liabilities, net of acquisitions and disposals
 营运资本变化|(3,412)|(8,512)|20 Final Owner Earnings
股东盈余终值|(46,709)|(10,935)|(10,601) In this case, GM's automotive business is even uglier than we thought. The company's operations required nearly $11 billion of cash in 2005 and 2006. In 2007, the business was hammered even worse, requiring nearly $47 billion of excess cash just to keep the cars coming off the assembly line. 结果显示，通用汽车公司的情况比我们想像的更糟。2005和2006年，公司的运营大约需要近110亿美元的现金。2007年的境况更差，还需要约470亿美元的现金才能确保汽车能持续地走下生产线。 How did it cover this shortfall? It began selling businesses, selling finance receivables, playing games with the pension and OPEB, refinancing debt, and working some tax magic. Of course, as the business deteriorated, so too did the stock price: 如何应对这样的亏空呢？公司开始出售业务、出售金融应收资产、在养老金和OPEB上玩数字游戏、发行债务和税收上的把戏。随着公司业务的恶化，股票价格也随之下降。 ![](../Elements/Joe_Ponzio/GM.png) Price follows value. When the value deteriorates rapidly (as is often the case when a business' operations are cash-hungry beasts), the stock price is usually not too far behind. # Owner Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow: Putting It Into Perspective 全面地看待股东盈余与自由现金流 We've seen the trouble with relying solely on GAAP earnings. Bob's business was profitable from a GAAP /IRS/Wall Street perspective; still, if his first customer didn't pay, Bob was out of business. 我们已经看到仅仅依赖会计收益带来的问题。从会计报告、税务机关以及华尔街的角度来看，Bob的公司是赚钱的。可是，只要Bob的第一个客户没有如约付款，他将关门大吉。 Free Cash Flow is a short-hand method for scanning companies. When a company has minimal reconciliation to net income and fairly steady and predictable capital expenditures, Free Cash Flow and Owner Earnings are substantially the same. In that case, either can be used for valuation purposes. Because of the investor's margin of safety, a minor difference between Free Cash Flow and Owner Earnings would be insignificant when calculating intrinsic value. 自由现金流是快速筛选公司时的简便方法。当一家公司的净利润调节不大时，而且该公司的资本支出比较稳定且易于预测时，自由现金流和股东盈余大体上是一致的。由于在估值时要给予一定的安全边际，自由现金流与股东盈余之间的细微差距不会对公司的内在价值评估带来显著影响。在这种情况下，可以任选二者之一来进行估值。 Owner Earnings is the best indicator of cash flow from the operating activities of the business, regardless of how management strives to juggle profitability and cash flow. When a company has a large amount of non-cash charges to GAAP earnings, Owner Earnings is generally a more reliable indicator of business performance than Free Cash Flow. In fact, depending on how creative, aggressive, or cautious management gets, Free Cash Flow can be extremely skewed in these cases, as we saw with General Motors. **股东利润是衡量企业经营活动现金流的最好指标，无论公司管理层如何在盈利和现金流数字上玩花样。当一家公司的财报上录有大量的非现金支出时，一般来说股东利润比自由现金流能更好地反映公司的业绩**。在现实情况中，就像我们看到的通用公司的例子一样，可能由于管理层的创造力、激进或者保守心态，自由现金流被极大地扭曲。  It is important to note that, while Free Cash Flow and Owner Earnings can be substantially the same, they can also be substantially different. Focus on Owner Earnings, and use Free Cash Flow as a short- hand only when it makes sense. **重要的事情讲三遍，虽然自由现金流和股东盈余可以是大体相同的，它们也可能是完全不同的。始终以股东盈余的观念来思考，仅在合理的时候将自由现金流作为快捷方法使用。** Questions? Comments? Visit Joe Ponzio's F Wall Street: [www.FWallStreet.com](www.FWallStreet.com). 有问题？评论？请访问 Joe Ponzio 的 F Wall Street：[www.FWallStreet.com](www.FWallStreet.com)。 Best of luck with your investing, 祝您投资顺利！ Joe Ponzio